ECR stands for “Expert Consensus Ranking,” which means the average rankings of the fantasy football industry and is typically similar to ADP (which differs from site-to-site). This ongoing positional series will highlight some big differences between ECR and my own ranks.
Quarterbacks I like more than consensus
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (ECR = QB5 vs. My Rank = QB1)
Fantasy points per dropback is one of the best future indicators of fantasy performance, and Richardson just recorded the most FP/DB since Lamar Jackson’s historic 2019 season. Richardson averaged 29.2 fantasy points per four quarters as a rookie and matched C.J. Stroud in weekly top-five finishes despite playing just 10 quarters.
Richardson continued to show a strong ability to avoid sacks like he did in college, and last year’s full-season rushing pace would’ve led all quarterbacks in rush yards (925), rush TDs (26!), attempts (170) and designed runs (111). He easily paced the league in designed rush rate in the red zone and doesn’t plan on changing his playing style in Year 2.
Richardson has a limited NFL sample and appears to enter 2024 with a heightened injury risk but the other Tier 1 fantasy quarterbacks all have question marks as well, and none possess AR’s ceiling. Shane Steichen is a certified QB guru, and the Colts play indoors at an incredibly high pace (top-five in plays per game with Richardson last year). Indianapolis is loaded with athletic weapons and has two legit wide receivers and a top-five offensive line. Richardson will also likely improve during his second year in the league and be far better versed in Steichen’s offense.
With salivating rushing ability and the right coaching staff and roster around him, Richardson’s unmatched fantasy potential outweighs his health risk.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (ECR = QB8 vs. My Rank = QB5)
Murray still ranked top 10 in fantasy points per dropback last season despite running less than usual coming off a torn ACL and with arguably the league’s weakest supporting cast. He started running more after Arizona’s bye and should be even more aggressive on the ground during his second year removed from knee surgery.
The Cardinals have an underrated system/coaching staff that helped Arizona rank top-10 in EPA per play and yards per play over the second half of last season and then added star WR Marvin Harrison Jr. early in the draft. Trey McBride has emerged as an elite option at tight end, Arizona upgraded its offensive line and the NFC West should feature a ton of shootouts in 2024.
Since his rookie season, Murray has ranked as the QB4, QB4 and QB5 in fantasy points per game before tearing his ACL in 2022, and he finished higher than Stroud and Patrick Mahomes last year despite the unfavorable conditions.
The last time Murray had a 1,000-yard receiver, he finished as the QB2.
Murray simply shouldn’t be drafted behind quarterbacks who don’t run, like Stroud or Joe Burrow.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (ECR = QB11 vs. My Rank = QB8)
Purdy just posted the best YPA season in NFL history despite incredibly poor pass protection and rehabbing from elbow surgery until the end of November. He threw for more yards and just one fewer TD pass than Jordan Love in 135 fewer attempts.
The 49ers are projected to score the most points in the league in 2024 (including the fantasy playoffs), while Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are both top-15 fantasy WRs in ECR. George Kittle is the TE6.
Kyle Shanahan’s recent personnel decisions also suggest San Francisco may pass far more in 2024 (like he did in Atlanta), especially with Christian McCaffrey coming off a 400+ touch campaign.
Purdy (0.63) finished just behind leader Josh Allen (0.64) in fantasy points per dropback last season, when he led the NFL in 30+ yard pass attempts. He leads the league in passer rating and YPA and is second in TD passes since taking over as starter in 2022. Last year’s historic efficiency is sure to regress, but that should be offset by more volume. Purdy doesn’t offer the same rushing upside as the QB tier above him, but he’s capable of adding 4-6 rushing scores on the season.
Purdy added pounds and zip during an injury-free offseason, but the “system QB” continues to get less respect than Rodney Dangerfield. Purdy should threaten 40+ passing touchdowns in 2024.
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders (ECR = QB12 vs. My Rank = QB9)
There’s a good chance Washington ends up regretting drafting Daniels over Drake Maye, but that doesn’t mean Daniels can’t be a fantasy force right away. Last season he averaged the second-most fantasy points per game (40.2) since 2016 and the second-most fantasy points per dropback since 2014. Daniels averaged 60+ rushing yards and scored 34 rushing touchdowns during his college career, and Kliff Kingsbury helped Kyler Murray finish as a top-10 QB as a rookie. Kingsbury’s scheme ranked first in situation-neutral pace and no-huddle rate during his four seasons in Arizona, also producing runs against light boxes at a league-high rate.
Daniels is a truly elite runner who led all NCAA quarterbacks last year in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.72) while leading all Power Five QBs in rushing yards (1,250), YPC (10.4), scrambles (55) and PFF Rushing Grade (92.4 — the best ever). Running not only increases a fantasy quarterback’s upside but also his floor, and Daniels is likely to run as much as any QB in the league as a rookie.
Daniels is unquestionably an injury risk, but high-upside picks (assuming not Superflex) make a lot of sense with the quarterback position deeper than ever this year.
Quarterbacks I like less than consensus
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (ECR = QB7 vs. My Rank = QB11)
Burrow suffered a rare season-ending wrist injury last year no NFL QB has ever experienced before. He was having “good days and bad days” in May, although dealing with an injury in training camp is nothing new for Burrow.
Injuries aside, Burrow has other red flags. Even if we completely write off his shockingly poor first six games last season (5.3 YPA!) thanks to his calf injury, the overall change in Cincinnati’s offense hints at a bigger problem. Burrow has become a checkdown artist since opposing defenses started employing two-high safeties at a high rate. He ranked 38th in downfield passing rate in 2022 and 32nd in intended air yards per attempt last season, and reports out of Bengals camp suggest more of the same in 2024. Quarterbacks can be successful with a low aDOT, but truly elite fantasy production becomes a lot tougher (see: Patrick Mahomes), especially without running.
Burrow was terrific after Cincinnati’s bye when healthy last season, and it’s possible Cincinnati passes more frequently with Joe Mixon gone. But Burrow is unlikely to run much at all at this stage of his career, and he’s managed just 6.98 YPA since 2022 (26 games) while consciously throwing underneath far more. There’s risk here beyond the injury history.
That said, my ranking is less of an indictment on Burrow and more a product of an absolutely stacked top 10 that includes dual-threat QBs who don’t have to face the Ravens, Steelers and Browns’ defenses 35% of their schedule.
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (ECR = QB10 vs. My Rank = QB12)
Love was the QB4 in fantasy points per game over Weeks 11-18 last season, and the Packers are well-coached with a loaded WR group. However, his 7.2 YPA ranked 13th, and it’s a mark that typically results in far fewer than 32 touchdown passes. Volume helps, but Love’s 5.8% TD rate ranked top three in the league and will be especially difficult to sustain with low efficiency.
Love benefitted from the second-most red-zone attempts (100) last season, but Green Bay added big back Josh Jacobs during the offseason. The Packers scored 76.2% of their touchdowns through the air last year, while Jacobs averaged 11 rushing TDs over 2020-2022. Moreover, the Packers are highly unlikely to score a touchdown on a historical 95% of their goal-to-go possessions like last season, which was the highest rate since at least the 90s.
Maybe we should give more credit to Love’s second half given it was his first year as a starter, but it’s also worth noting it was a small sample. Love also generally didn’t perform well in terms of stable prediction metrics, and his big jump in the second half was helped by improvement under pressure, which isn’t super reliable when predicting future performance.
Love should have a productive fantasy season, but he’s slightly over-ranked thanks to running hot on touchdowns last year.
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