The Matildas on Thursday morning (3am AEST) face football giants USA in their final group game of the Paris Olympics – and Australia’s hopes of reaching the knockout stages are well and truly on thin ice.
The Matildas have beaten America just once in 33 attempts, with the USA winning four of the seven gold medals since women’s football joined the Olympics in ‘96 and beating Australia in the bronze medal match in Tokyo.
The Olympics women’s football tournament consists of three groups of four teams each. The top two teams from each group go through to the quarter-finals, as well as the top two third-placed teams across the three groups.
After losing to Germany in their opening game before beating Zambia in a 6-5 rollercoaster in the second game, the Matildas sit third in their group on three points, behind the USA (6 points), Germany (3, but with better goal difference than Aus), and ahead of Zambia (0).
But the Matildas’ hopes of keeping their Olympic campaign alive – and Australia’s dream of a first-ever football medal – could rest on some very confusing permutations.
Here are all the scenarios ahead of the final game!
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IF THE MATILDAS WIN
They will guarantee a spot in the knockouts. They could finish anywhere between first and third, depending on their goal difference and the result in the Germany-Zambia game. But even if they finish third, they’re certain to progress as one of the top two third-placed teams.
IF THE MATILDAS DRAW
They will finish on four points. They’ll be behind the USA (7 points) and potentially Germany (6 points if they beat Zambia, 4 points if they draw, 3 points if they lose). If Germany draw, they’ll be ahead of the Matildas on goal difference – so Australia will stay third.
But finishing in third place with four points will be enough to progress.
That’s because in Group A, the maximum points that any third-placed team can reach is three – meaning the Matildas would have more points and therefore safely secure one of the two spots for the third-placed teams.
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IF THE MATILDAS LOSE
Things can get VERY complicated.
Firstly, they have to avoid finishing fourth in their group. To that point, Aussies will be hoping that Zambia don’t beat Germany. In that case, the USA would top the group with a perfect nine points, while Australia, Germany and Zambia would all finish on three points.
It would come down to goal difference, and both Zambia and Germany could end up above Australia (Currently, Germany’s goal difference is zero goal, Australia’s is -2, and Zambia is -4).
For example, if Australia lost by one goal the Matildas’ goal difference would be -3. If Zambia won by two goals, both Germany and Zambia’s goal difference would be -2 – meaning Australia would be last.
If goal difference is level, group placings are decided by goals scored, followed by points obtained in the matches between the teams in question – which means if Australia and Germany are level on goal difference, Germany will be given the higher rank, while if it’s Australia and Zambia, Australia will be above thanks to their stunning 6-5 win.
If the Matildas lose and Germany beat Zambia or draw, Zambia is guaranteed to finish fourth and the Matildas third.
Then it comes down to the results in other groups.
The tie-breakers for ranking the third-place teams in different groups is as such: 1) Points 2) Goal difference 3) Goals scored 4) Fair play points in all group matches (aka fewest cards received) 5) Drawing of lots.
The simplest scenario is this: if Canada AND New Zealand both don’t win their Group A matches (vs Colombia and France respectively), the Matildas go through.
If one or both of those teams win, it could go down to goal difference, then goals scored, and so on.
The Matildas could also hope to finish above the third-placed team from Group C.
Currently, Spain have six points, Japan and Brazil both have three, and Nigeria zero.
Nigeria, Japan and Brazil could each (or all) end up on three points depending on results (the same as the Matildas’ three points if they lose). In that case, it will again go down to goal difference and potentially the other tie-breakers.
There’s simply too many permutations to look at individual games.
To keep things as simple as possible, if the Matildas win or draw they are guaranteed to reach the knockouts. If they lose, their biggest hope is lose by as small a margin as possible – and then to cross their fingers.
But – crucially – the Group C group games take place before Australia plays, so Australia will at least know what goal difference they’ll need to finish above the third-placed team from that group even if they lose.
THE BIG CAVEAT
There is one last elephant in the room – and it’s a sizeable one.
Canada, the reigning Olympic champions, were docked six points and fined 200,000 Swiss Francs by FIFA after a staffer used a drone to spy on a training session of opponents New Zealand last week. It later emerged that the team had previously spied on opponents in the same fashion on multiple occasions. Coach Bev Priestman, assistant Jasime Mander, and analyst Joey Lombardi were all sent home and banned from all football activities for a year. Lombardi, who flew the drone, was also given an eight-month suspended prison sentence.
But Canada Soccer and the Canadian Olympic Committee have filed an appeal to the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) – the top court in sport. They are not seeking to appeal the ruling of guilt or the punishments meted out to the individuals involved, only the six-point penalty. A hearing is “likely” to take place on Tuesday (European time), CAS said in a statement, with a verdict expected Wednesday.
If CAS reduces the points deduction, the rankings of Group C could be shuffled around – and Australia could cop a major blow to their hopes of progressing in the event that they lose to Zambia.
Source Agencies
