This weekend’s box office battle could prompt some awkward dinner table conversations. That’s because Ryan Reynolds, the star/producer/co-writer of Disney’s Marvel sequel “Deadpool & Wolverine,” is facing off against his wife, the star/ producer of Sony’s literary adaptation “It Ends With Us” to lead in North America.
Despite two new major releases — in addition to “It Ends With Us,” there’s Lionsgate’s video game-inspired “Borderlands,” led by Cate Blanchett and Kevin Hart — “Deadpool & Wolverine” should take the top spot for the third consecutive frame. The superhero adventure looks to add a mighty $47 million to $50 million over the weekend. So far, “Deadpool & Wolverine” has grossed $407 million domestically and $851 million globally. It will cross $1 billion globally in the next few days.
Even if her film lands in second place, Lively will likely have her own cause for celebration: “It Ends With Us” is projected to earn a solid $25 million to $35 million in its opening weekend. Because Colleen Hoover’s book became a phenomenon on “BookTok” (a subset of TikTok that’s devoted to reading) and was the top-selling print novel of 2022, rival studio executives and independent tracking services believe that initial ticket sales could skyrocket to $40 million to $50 million. Those analysts expect that female audiences will turn out in force on Friday (it’s possible that “It Ends With Us” will place first over “Deadpool & Wolverine” on opening day) but they’re waiting to see how business will hold throughout the weekend.
“Jane the Virgin” actor Justin Baldoni co-stars with Lively and directed the film, which cost $25 million to produce. It tells the story of Lily Bloom (Lively), a small business owner who gets caught in a love triangle between a charming neurosurgeon with a dark side, Ryle (Baldoni) and her first love, Atlas (Brandon Sklenar). Sony, the studio behind “It Ends With Us,” believes the movie will have similar staying power to another female-skewing literary adaptation, 2022’s “Where the Crawdads Sing,” starring Daisy Edgar-Jones. That film, also backed by Sony, opened to $17 million and achieved sleeper hit status with a stellar $90 million domestically and $144 million globally.
Meanwhile, “Borderlands” is shaping up to misfire with $12 million to $16 million in its first weekend of release. That would be a disastrous result for the film, which carries a production budget of roughly $115 million as well as marketing and distribution costs of $30 million. However, nearly 60% of production costs were covered by international presales and Lionsgate’s slate financing deal with Media Capital Technologies, according to insiders.
Directed by Eli Roth, “Borderlands” follows Lilith (Blanchett), an infamous outlaw with a mysterious past, who reluctantly returns to her home planet of Pandora and forms an unexpected alliance to find the missing daughter of Atlas. The starry cast includes Jack Black, Edgar Ramírez, Ariana Greenblatt and Jamie Lee Curtis.
Source Agencies
