Beware! Not all players will return their promised value in 2024 fantasy football drafts? The team at Yahoo Fantasy identifies five running back fades to consider avoiding at their current ADP.
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Yahoo ADP: 39
First of all, I feel compelled to mention that I’m not aggressively fading any running back currently ranked inside our consensus top 40. I’d take any of those guys at the right draft price. That said, I’m a little lower than the herd on Rachaad White, a player coming off an inefficient season as a rusher in which he didn’t break off many big gains and struggled to gain yards after contact.
Tampa Bay rookie Bucky Irving has delivered an impressive preseason and he’s White’s equal as a receiving threat. Irving may have already earned a rotational role in the Bucs backfield, and his usage should only increase. — Andy Behrens
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles
Yahoo ADP: 13
Barkley unquestionably improved offensive environments with the move to Philadelphia, but he’s a player in decline. Barkley’s broken tackle rate (4.7%) was the sixth-worst in the league last year, and only Dameon Pierce and Miles Sanders had a worse EPA/rush attempt. The receiving peripherals aren’t any better; Barkley has finished second-to-last in EPA/target each of the last two seasons.
History hasn’t been kind to running backs switching teams at this stage of their career, and Barkley’s new quarterback scored 15 rushing touchdowns last season, including 11 from the one-yard line. The Eagles were one of only two teams without a single RB rush attempt from the goal line last season. Philadelphia running backs rank just 25th in targets since Hurts took over as a starter and have seen the fifth-fewest expected fantasy points over the last two years.
Philadelphia has a loaded WR/TE group and a running QB, so targets will be limited. Barkley struggles before contact (and remember, Jason Kelce retired) and simply doesn’t resemble the player he was when entering the league.
No Eagles running back has finished as a top-20 fantasy RB during Hurts’ three years as a starter, which is just another reason that Barkley is a risky top-15 pick in Yahoo leagues. — Dalton Del Don
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Maybe Alvin Kamara will catch a bunch of short passes this year and keep his fantasy value afloat. He better, because just about every other key indicator looks bad right now. Kamara’s wading into a dangerous age pocket, his efficiency metrics tanked last year, and the Saints might have the worst offensive line in football.
New Orleans also doesn’t scheme easy touchdowns for Kamara, as he has just 10 scores in his last 28 games. You always want to be a year early on declining players, not a year late. — Scott Pianowski
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
Yahoo ADP: 71
You’ll notice a clear pattern with my fades. The players I’m fading aren’t necessarily bust risks. Rather, they are players with capped ceilings who are being drafted around higher upside options. Najee Harris is a very stable back and you know exactly what you’re getting out of him. He’ll hit his ADP, finish as a low-end RB2 and average slightly over 10 fantasy points.
Despite being in a committee with Jaylen Warren, he’s in a run-heavy offense and will have a strong workload and goal line preference. The problem with drafting Harris is the variance on those 10 fantasy points is very slim. One week you’ll get five fantasy points and the next week you’ll get five – low ceiling, low floor. I’d rather take a chance on a player like Zamir White or D’Andre Swift, risky players who have realistic RB1 upside. — Tera Roberts
Austin Ekeler, Washington Commanders
Yahoo ADP: 107
Ekeler has been one of the more notable names in fantasy football these past few years, but I’m not a big fan of his fit with his new team. Ekeler has made his money as a fantasy asset through the air — he ranks first among running backs in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns since 2020.
However, with the mobile Jayden Daniels as his quarterback, I’m afraid that Ekeler will lose out on a lot of check-downs and dump-offs as Daniels will likely prefer to make a play with his legs instead. Ekeler will also be in a timeshare with Brian Robinson, and Ekeler looked like he lost a lot of juice and explosiveness last year. Throw in the fact that the Commanders aren’t expected to be a particularly good scoring offense, I struggle to see where Ekeler will be able to contribute high-value fantasy points. — Pranav Rajaram
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