Collingwood finds itself in uncharted waters under Craig McRae.
Granted, it’s only Round 2 (though for the Magpies, three games in), but Collingwood has critically fallen to 0-3 – becoming just the second team in the AFL era to start the season with three consecutive losses – and looks a shadow of the rampaging side of the last two seasons.
The last time a reigning premier was 0-3? Geelong last year. The last to start 0-3 and win the premiership? North Melbourne in 1975. And the last to start 0-3 and play in a grand final? North Melbourne again just a year later in 1976.
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Craig McRae: ‘Sloppy, rusty, clunky’ | 12:34
No matter how you look at it, history is against the Pies in their bid to go back-to-back, even for a side that’s constantly defied the odds and pulled off the near impossible time and time again.
The fixture doesn’t get any easier too, with a grand final rematch against Brisbane at the Gabba to come next week – a venue the Pies haven’t beaten the Lions at since 2019.
Again, it’s still very early days in the season. The criticism will come thick and fast – and some of it, if not most of it, will be justified, for the problems are glaring for a team was were the kings of the AFL mere months ago.
But what’s reality and what’s just noise?
Foxfooty.com.au has used a segment from Fox Footy’s AFL 360, Real or Overreaction, to break down the big issues facing McRae and company right now.
They can’t win the premiership … Overreaction
We’ll start with a holistic topic, but probably the one that’ll be most debated over the coming week. Put simply, write this mob off at your own peril. Yes, McRae’s side is currently missing that aura that made it the most exciting, electrifying side in footy – a side that consistently went at 110 per cent and had a never-say die approach. While that aura was always going to inevitably dissipate at some stage, the Pies could also flick the switch back – and we know hot potent that switch can be. Both the Giants and Blues started slow out of the gates last year – with Carton sitting as low as in the bottom four at the midway point of the season – before going on to play in preliminary finals. Ultimately, every side is building their list, culture, game plan and structures to get to a stage where Collingwood’s is now, so that doesn’t vanish after three losses. Perhaps the bigger question is if or when the Pies rediscover their mojo, whether or not it’ll be too late or if they’re able to consistently keep it that way. They’ll need roughly 16 wins to make the top four, so are starting with a fair handicap. But even if they snuck into the top eight, no one would want to play a side with as much experience as them in the finals.
What went wrong for the Pies? | 01:29
They have a premiership hangover … Real
Call it a premiership hangover, complacency or whatever you want, Collingwood isn’t nearly as sharp, committed or connected as last year … or the year prior. Hawthorn legend Jason Dunstall on Fox Footy observed that Collingwood weren’t “prepared to put their bodies on the line” against St Kilda. Another way to put it is that the Pies are simply horribly out of form and happen to be the reigning premiers. That’s clearly unusual, so there might well be a feeling of complacency across the group, particularly those that worked so hard for several years to climb the mountain. All pre-season we’ve heard the motto is ‘back to work’, but they’re now just words and haven’t transitioned to performance. As harsh as it is, very few Magpies are having good seasons, albeit, through three games, while they’re also just not playing well as a team. Put it together and you have a side that’d be very hard to play in right now, as easy as it is to point the finger at certain individuals. It starts with the stars though. Jordan De Goey, an absolute barometer for Collingwood, is averaging 18 disposals and has kicked just one goal. Of their other five members from the 2023 All-Australian squad – Darcy Moore, Josh Daicos, Nick Daicos and Isaac Quaynor – only Nick Daicos has backed up his 2023 campaign, and even he was uncharacteristically quiet against St Kilda. Norm Smith Medallist Bobby Hill hasn’t played with the same shine, while their reliable veterans have also struggled (but more on that later). It’s not outrageous to suggest, no matter the opponent next week, you wouldn’t have faith in Collingwood winning based on current form.
Fundamentals are the main issue … Real
We can overcomplicate footy too much sometimes. At its absolute core, if you’re not executing the basic fundamentals consistently – like Collingwood right now – the rest of your game is going to suffer badly. It’s why rebuilding teams with so much youth and inexperience take so long to develop. Craig McRae after Thursday night’s loss to St Kilda lamented his side’s basic skill errors and put it on his leaders. Whether a coincidence, plain bad luck or a reflection of the quality of the opposition, it’s also felt like whenever the Pies have made big errors, they’ve been consistently punished on the scoreboard. It’s a key reason why McRae’s side is conceding so many points off turnover, because crucial mistakes the Pies don’t normally make have opened them up and led directly to goals. At the other end of the ground, there hasn’t been the same quality of supply nor the ball going in quick enough, setting a tough task for the forwards to kick a winning score. So as a result of one simple issue – that’s permeating through the group – there’s a side breaking down in multiple areas.
Higgo boots STUNNER… and he knows it! | 00:45
Their system is broken/has been worked out … Real
A classic case of the hunters becoming the hunted. For two years, teams have struggled to score against Collingwood’s stingy defence, which starts further up the field, and been overwhelmed by its run and offence. And for two years, the smartest brains in footy have gone to work on how to combat that game plan, with an even greater urgency since the Pies saluted last year to set the benchmark. Ross Lyon suggested as much after his Saints took down the Pies on Thursday night, saying the reigning premiers’ “signature” has become clear. We already saw sides start to crowd the corridor more last year and stifle their run. Now, we’re seeing that evolve including Collingwood’s weapons, like Jordan De Goey, get clamped down on more, and their star interceptors being made to play more accountable, while Nathan Murphy’s absence has clearly left a big void in defence. Make no mistake though, this is as much as the Pies simply not executing on their end. Usually so good at pressing up aggressively and getting numbers to the ball defensively, and offensively, having a running wave of offence, they’ve lacked that same commitment both ways this year. And their defensive woes up the ground have too often left their back six vulnerable. It’s either time for a plan B or a recalibration.
Father Time has caught up to the veterans … Real
It had to at some stage, right? This isn’t necessarily to write off the Pies champions’ careers, but they haven’t been up for it so far. Heck, it was only six months ago the likes of Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom, Tom Mitchell and Jack Crisp played absolute key roles in delivering the club its 16th flag on grand final day. But footy can move very fast. The aforementioned quartet as well as Mason Cox, Brody Mihocek and Jeremy Howe – all on the wrong side of 30 – have been well down on form to start this season. Saints legend Leigh Montagna on Fox Footy after Thursday night’s game said the Magpies veterans “aren’t quite the same” and “haven’t come to the party” in 2024. Even if one or two of them have declined, it changes the whole make-up of the side. Plus, one of the big knocks on Collingwood has been it’s looked slow around the ground, which doesn’t bode well for its ageing warriors. Of course, this is a very proud group you’d have faith in to bounce back on some level. Such names can still find was to be effective, even if not at their best, and help the team gets its season back on track. But it doesn’t change the fact that the Pies stalwarts are getting closer to the end of their careers – and regression is starting to show – at least giving the club something to ponder moving forward.
Wood stretchered off after horrible fall | 00:49
Time to get bold at selection … Overreaction
That leads directly to the next point. If the veterans are performing, how bold should they get in making changes – both to the 23 or specific roles otherwise? McRae already hinted at potential moves to inject “hunger” into his side, though they already made multiple changes this week – and to good effect. Frankly, from a selection perspective, McRae doesn’t have that many levers he can pull, nor should he get too funky given they’re just four games removed from a grand final win. The absolute core will ultimately dictate the club’s fortunes this year – a core that’s largely set. But McRae himself has long preached the need to constantly evolve to get better. Reef McInnes, who kicked a team-high three goals against St Kilda in his first game of 2024, and Finlay Macrae, who’s shown promising flashes as the sub over the past fortnight, have both provided an exuberance of youth and deserve spots in the starting 22 – like they seemed destined for after strong pre-seasons despite starting the year on the outside. The Pies lack energy on the ball, so Macrae deserves an opportunity to at least show what he can do over four quarters. Also his first appearance of 2024, Billy Frampton had “his best game for the club” against the Saints, according to McRae, after replacing Charlie Dean, making the Magpies’ back six look much more sturdy. As for potential reinforcements to call on moving forward, John Noble and Will Hoskin-Elliott are ready-made options that can provide a steady veteran calmness. If they opted for more youth, Harvey Harrison and Ed Allan would probably be at the front of the queue. Then there’s more radical moves McRae could try to light a spark, like moving Howe forward or giving Beau McCreery more minutes on the ball in expense for one of the veterans.
They shouldn’t have traded for Lachie Schultz … Overreaction
Settle the jets on this one. A lot of Pies fans would be questioning what all the fuss was about over trade recruit Lachie Schultz, who was seen as an upgrade over Jack Ginnivan. After all, Collingwood handed over this year’s first-round pick – which suddenly looks way more valuable – and a late second-rounder to secure the forward from the Dockers. Yes, he’s been slow to get going in black and white, averaging just 12.3 touches, one goal and three tackles through three games, which would be roughly his worst numbers since 2021. But with the way the Pies are currently playing, it’d be hard to envision even the Marcus Bontempellis of the world performing at a high level in that side. So it’s harsh to over scrutinise Schultz just because he’s the new recruit, or the list management team for being aggressive. Can you really knock a team in its premiership window getting busy to strive for more success while in a short-spaced window? Any other contender would’ve happily handed over a similar haul to add Schultz to their mix – that’s literally what trade and free agency is for. A lot to play out still.
They badly miss Dan McStay … Real
One thing’s been clear over Collingwood’s first three games – it lacks a true aerial threat forward of centre. Though that’s partly due to the sluggish ball movement, there’s times when you’re not playing well and simply need a key forward to take a big mark as a circuit breaker to change the momentum of play and take pressure off their teammates. This is where McStay is particularly valuable and was during the finals series before suffering a knee setback, then rupturing his ACL over the summer to leave a big void up forward for 2024. Some argued, given the Pies won the grand final without McStay and have an array of forward weapons, it wouldn’t be too big of a blow. But it’s a role McRae and his team have really struggled to fill and makes life tougher on the likes of Mihocek and Jamie Elliott, who are forced to play taller, while Mason Cox is yet to kick a goal this year. McInnes showed his tricks against St Kilda as a versatile option, but he’s only 194cm and not a true crash packs type forward. In saying this, they also couldn’t expect, if say McStay was magically available next week, he’d solve all their issues and that they’d start rolling again as per. But structurally, they’re wanting for a reference point up forward to put opposition defences under pressure.
Source Agencies
