Fantasy Football Week 1 Start Sit Decisions: Caleb Williams makes an entrance – MASHAHER

Quarterback

Start: Caleb Williams, Bears

The Titans were a cakewalk matchup for quarterbacks last year. They ranked 30th in EPA per dropback allowed and 27th in adjusted yards per attempt conceded. Tennessee made efforts to improve their defense in the offseason by trading for L’Jarius Sneed and drafting multiple defenders after the first round. On the other hand, they lost sack-leader Denico Autry and tackle-leader Azeez Al-Shaair in free agency. The defense will improve, but even a leap forward will still have them as a below-average unit.

For Caleb Williams, this is as good of a situation as a No. 1 overall pick has ever seen. DJ Moore and Keenan Allen both finished in the top 15 in yards per route run last year. Allen led the NFL in ESPN’s Open Score and Moore ranked second in Catch Score. They have an elite duo of veterans plus Rome Odunze, the ninth pick in the draft. On top of the elite cast of weapons, Pro Football Focus ranks the Bears’ offensive line 11th in the league heading into the season. Williams will surprise the rookie quarterback doubters, starting with a demolition of the Titans.

Start: Geno Smith, Seahawks

Speaking of great situations, Geno Smith is entering one of his own via Seattle’s hiring of Ryan Grubb. Grubb dialed up an explosive, pass-heavy attack while coordinating the Washington Huskies offense.

Also from Hayden Winks, Grubb showed his play-design prowess in the preseason, utilizing pre-snap motion at the second-highest rate. For Smith’s only drive in the preseason, Grubb called five passes, all out of 11-personnel, two of which resulted in 20-yard gains. Skate to where the puck is going and get on the Seattle bandwagon.

Sit: Dak Prescott, Cowboys

The Browns were the true nightmare matchup for quarterbacks last year. They generated -.19 EPA per play every time an opposing passer dropped back. That led the NFL and is the highest mark for a defense since 2019. Cleveland’s opponents ran the fewest plays and attempted the fifth-fewest passes in 2023. I would take the risk on players like Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels over Dak in Week 1.

Sit: Aaron Rodgers, Jets

Aaron Rodgers played a handful of snaps in 2023 and was far from the peak of his powers in 2022. His 6.8 yards per attempt was a seven-year low. He ranked 15th in completion percent over expected and 21st in EPA per play. For his triumphant return from the torn Achilles he suffered last year, Rodgers gets a brutal matchup with the 49ers. San Francisco’s defense ranked sixth in EPA per dropback and seventh in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks last season.

Running Back

Start: Zack Moss, Bengals

The hype surrounding Chase Brown has hit a fevered pitch late in the summer and rightfully so. He’s an explosive young back on a potentially elite offense. With that being said, Week 1 is a great spot for the grinder of the backfield, Zack Moss. Per NFL’s Next Gen Stats, the former Colt turned in a strong success rate—a measure of how often you turn in a positive rushing result—of 41.8 percent in 2023. He was also over 40 percent in 2022. His consistency and size advantage over Brown should give him the first crack at goal line work. As an 8.5-point favorite at home versus New England, there should be plenty of that to go around.

Start: David Montgomery, Lions

Montgomery is another 1A running back in a phenomenal spot. The Lions are 3.5-point favorites at home with the highest implied team total of the slate. Vegas projects the Lions to score in droves and Montgomery is the guy they go to at the goal line. Montgomery out-carried Jahmyr Gibbs 17-8 inside the five last year before the playoffs. In the postseason, Montgomery saw eight carries inside the five. Gibbs was not given one such look. Detroit’s battering ram of a running back is a strong start in games like his Week 1 matchup with LA.

Sit: James Conner, Cardinals

The Cardinals are 6.5-point underdogs on the road at Buffalo. They have an uninspiring team total of 20.75 and James Conner doesn’t have a strong receiving role to fall back on if he doesn’t make a trip to the end zone. Conner finished the 2023 season ranked 33rd in route share and 40th in target share. Conner was so good between the tackles last year that I will be backing him even as a slight underdog, but a near-touchdown deficit makes him a fade.

Sit: Zamir White, Raiders

Head coach Antonio Pierce definitely wants to establish it with Zamir White, but he isn’t likely to get the chance in Week 1. The Raiders are three-point dogs on the road and Pierce wasn’t stubborn about running the football last year. His team was above-average in pass rate when trailing and Vegas entirely abandoned the run once they got behind by a touchdown. They passed on 73 percent of their plays when playing from a seven-point deficit. That would have led the NFL over a full season. White has caught more than three passes in one game…since high school.

Wide Receiver

Start: Keenan Allen, Bears

If we’re firing up Caleb Williams in his debut, you better believe we are getting his No. 2 receiver in the lineup. On top of the aforementioned fancy stats that point to Allen still being a star, he ranked fourth in the NFL in receiving yards per game (95.6) and first in receptions per game (8.3). Fade the “Big Keenan” non-story from the summer and start the stud wideout.

Keenan Allen (heel) is listed as questionable but looks likely to play through the issue. Keep tabs on his status through the Rotoworld news feed.

Start: Keon Coleman, Bills

Coleman is a risky bet in Week 1, but a risk worth taking. In his two preseason appearances, he played every snap with the starters while players Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel were rotated in and out of the lineup. The Bills are tied for the highest implied team total of the week (27.25) and get an Arizona defense that ranked 31st in EPA per dropback allowed in 2023. Coleman would be a fine FLEX play as a part-time player and has the upside of logging a top-notch snap share in his first game.

Sit: Tyler Lockett, Seahawks

Having just worshipped at the alter of Ryan Grubb and the new Seattle offense, Lockett is the one player who may struggle to benefit from the changes. Lockett is nearly 32 years old, coming off his worst season by yards per route run since 2017, and is already injured. He also has last year’s first-round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba breathing down his neck. If JSN takes a step forward, Lockett continues his backslide, or the injury limits his playing time, Week 1 could be a rude awakening for Lockett’s fantasy backers.

Sit: Jerry Jeudy, Browns

The Brown/Cowboys matchup is simply disgusting. Both defenses ranked top-five in EPA per play allowed in 2023 and Vegas has it with a 41-point total. That number dropped precipitously after opening at 44.5 and now has the week’s second-lowest scoring projection. Deshaun Watson is still looking for his first 300-yard game with the Browns and Kevin Stefanski has called an absurdly run-heavy approach in an effort to hide Watson over the past two seasons. Watson, and Jeudy by extension, are in a wait-and-see category for Week 1.

Tight End

Start: Taysom Hill, Saints

Taysom Hill’s tight end status hasn’t been ratified in all 50 states so be sure to call your local representative if he isn’t listed as such on your fantasy platform of choice. For those playing on democratic sites, Hill is a must-add and a viable starting option if you didn’t end up with an elite tight end. The Saints put Kendre Miller on injured reserve and Jamaal Williams ranked dead last in the NFL in rush yards over expected last year. Hill, in turn, took 9-of-20 snaps from the backfield during this preseason and punched in a short touchdown. He has at least five touchdowns in each of the past five seasons and two seasons with nine scores before counting any of his passing touchdowns. Now he has a path to more work as a backup running back.

He’s also the only player Dennis Allen, his head coach, has said a nice thing about this summer. Hill’s production will be volatile, but he’s the best shot at matching elite tight end scoring in a given week.

Start: Colby Parkinson, Rams

If you are truly desperate at tight end, how did you get here already? Regardless, Colby Parkinson is the deepest cut TE2 you can find on the waiver wire. Tyler Higbee ran the 13th-most routes among tight ends last year despite missing two games. Higbee suffered a torn ACL in the playoffs and will miss a large chunk of the 2023 season. Parkinson signed a three-year, $22.5 million contract in the offseason and was rested with the rest of the starters in the preseason. He is the overwhelming favorite to inherit the “Higbee role.” Parkinson is just a bet on routes, but that could be enough to get home in a game with a 51-point total, easily the highest of the week.

Sit: Cole Kmet, Bears

The two tight ends sits will be extremely concise and are based on the same reasoning. Cole Kmet ran a route on half of Caleb Williams’ dropbacks during the preseason. Gerald Everett played 20 snaps with the starters compared to 14 for Kmet.

Kmet was even playing farther into games than the rest of the starters. I’m still not entirely sure Everett will play over Kmet, but I don’t want to find out through my starting lineup.

Sit: Pat Freiermuth, Steelers

In the Steelers’ first preseason game, Pat Freiermuth logged an underwhelming 71 percent snap share. His snap share fell to 52 percent the next week and then plummeted to 40 percent to close out the preseason. New OC Arthur Smith platooned him with former third-round pick Darnell Washington and Atlanta expatriate MyCole Pruitt. This is a very clear stay-away until further notice.