Michigan (3-1, 1-0) took a humbling loss to Texas in Week 2, but regained some of their swagger with a gritty 27-24 victory over USC in which new Wolverines QB Alex Orji completed just 7-of-12 passes for 32 yards. Orji’s rushing ability allowed UM to pound the rock 46 times for a staggering 290 yards, 6.3 YPC and three touchdowns. Converted LB-to-RB Kalel Mullings provided the fireworks with a breakout 17 carry, 159-yard, two touchdown performance. Star TE Colston Loveland missed the contest and is trending as a game-time decision, while projected R1 CB Will Johnson left last game but is expected to play this week without restrictions.
Minnesota (2-2, 0-1) dropped a tight 19-17 loss to North Carolina in Week 1 despite owning an 86% win expectancy throughout much of it, before rolling Rhode Island and Nevada by a combined score of 75-0. Then Iowa rode into Minneapolis unleashing RB Kaleb Johnson, 272 team rushing yards, 6.0 YPC and a 31-14 beating on a beleaguered Minnesota front-seven that had no answers for the Hawkeyes’ power-run game. Unfortunately, they play another power-run team in Michigan this week, which means Minnesota will need to generate significant production from their 89th ranked SP+ offense that’s averaging 19.3 PPG (95th) and 5.4 yards per play (80th)
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Game Details and How to watch 2024 Minnesota @ Michigan live Saturday
· Date: Saturday, September 28th, 2024
· Time: 12:00 PM EST
· Michigan Stadium
· City: Ann Arbor, Michigan
· TV/Streaming: Fox
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Latest Game odds for Minnesota @ Michigan – Week 5
The latest odds as of Thursday afternoon:
· Moneyline: Michigan -350, Minnesota +275
· Spread: Michigan -9.5
· Over/Under: 35.5 points
*odds courtesy of BetMGM
A projected ground-and-pound, clock-eating affair, the game total opened at 39.5 points before nose diving to the current 35.5 points line we’re seeing across the market, though FanDuel is still holding out at 36.5. The spread opened at Michigan -11 with the market is still pretty unsettled, as -9 and -10 are still available in multiple spots. The moneyline for Minnesota is topping out at +290, while the best Michigan line available is -345.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
Eric Froton (@CFFroton) likes the home team to cover the spread:
“The unquestioned best thing Minnesota does on either side of the ball is defend the pass, as their havoc-creating secondary ranks 2nd overall with a 7.4% interception rate. Unfortunately, Michigan will likely attempt under 15 passes and intend to bludgeon the overmatched Gophers front with the aforementioned three-pronged rushing attack. I know this game will be at a snail’s pace, but I’m laying the 9.5 points and taking the Wolverines anyway.”
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From the Trading Desk at BetMGM courtesy of John Ewing: National Championship
Line movement (Last Week to Now)
· Texas +550 to +500
· Alabama +900 to +800
· Tennessee +1600 to +1200
Highest Ticket%
· Ohio State 16.0%
· Texas 11.3%
· Georgia 11.3%
Quarterback matchup for Minnesota @ Michigan
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Michigan: The Davis Warren Era appears to be firmly behind Michigan after Alex Orji orchestrated Michigan’s 27-24 victory over USC last weekend. A short yardage rushing QB specialist in 2023, Orji carried 14 times for 88 yards and a touchdown while not attempting a pass. Orji was hampered in the passing game without TE Colston Loveland, but there’s no sugar-coating his aerial limitations following the 7-of-12 for 32 yards passing against the Trojans. He rushed 13 times for 43 yards in the contest and owns a career 5.1 YPC average, so there’s little reason to believe Michigan will go away from the run-heavy script. I expect the Wolverines to pound Minnesota up the middle with Orji/Mullings/Edwards to devastating effect like Iowa did to them last game.
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Minnesota: Sixth-year QB Max Brosmer transferred from New Hampshire where he handed off to LV Raiders sixth-round RB Dylan Laube and boasted a 69-to-19 TD/INT ratio. The Walter Payton Award Finalist has been inarguably more effective than his predecessor Athan Kaliakmanis, completing 65% of his throws for 814 yards and a 5-to-3 ratio despite being saddled with a 10% drop rate from his receivers that boosts his adjusted completion rate to 79%. Brosmer is still adjusting to the speed of Power Four pass rushers though, as his 27% pressure-to-sack rate is 15% more than his 2023 P2S rate of 12%.
Wolverines vs. Golden Gophers Player news & recent stats
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Michigan RB Donovan Edwards has rushed for 10+ yards on just 11 of his 169 carries since the beginning of the 2023 season. His 6.5% 10+ yard rush rate is the 3rd lowest mark among active Power Four running backs.
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Edge Derrick Moore leads Michigan with 10 pressures and a 17% pressure rate. His counterpart Edge Josiah Stewart leads the team in havoc plays with 7.0, and sacks (4.0).
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Contrary to their reputation, Minnesota ranks 100th in standard downs run rate at 51.7%, whereas the national average is 58.2%. They’re still crawling along at the 130th pace in FBS, but the staff clearly trusts Brosmer more than the departed Kaliakmanis.
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Can’t knock Minnesota’s pass D, as they rank 1st in EPA/Dropback and 2nd in net YPA. You can give a slice of credit to the defensive line as well, with the Gophers generating a sensational 43% pressure rate, 5th best in FBS.
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