The Premier League is entering the home stretch, with teams having a mixture of seven, eight and, in one case, nine matches still to play.
For the first time in years, there’s a genuine three-way fight for the title. There’s also a tight battle for the European positions and a heated relegation race. From the top of the league to the bottom, there’s all to play for in a gripping run home.
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Red Devils produce choke of the season | 01:25
TITLE RACE
1st: Liverpool, 70 pts (P30, 21W, 7D, L2, +42)
Run home: Manchester United (a), Crystal Palace (h), Fulham (a), West Ham United (a), Tottenham (h), Aston Villa (a), Wolves (h), Everton (a – postponed)
2nd: Arsenal, 68 pts (P30, 21W, 5D, 4L, +48)
Run home: Brighton (a), Aston Villa (h), Wolves (a), Tottenham (a), Bournemouth (h), Manchester United (a), Everton (h), Chelsea (h – postponed)
3rd: Manchester City, 67 pts (P30, 20W, 7D, 3L, +38)
Run home: Crystal Palace (a), Luton Town (h), Tottenham (a), Nottingham Forest (a), Wolves (h), Fulham (a), West Ham United (h), Brighton (a – postponed)
Three teams, three incredible storylines.
This season marks 20 years since Arsenal last won the Premier League, although they came agonisingly close to breaking the drought in the last campaign.
The Gunners sat in pole position but could not hold on, losing two of their final three games to hand the title to Manchester City.
Mikel Arteta’s side are once again back in the title frame and sit top of the ladder at time of writing with the most goals scored in the entire league (70).
One point ahead of Arsenal in first place is Liverpool, who finished a disappointing 5th last season but have rocketed back into contention.
Yet this is long-serving Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp’s final season at Anfield and his troops would love nothing more than finishing the German’s tenure with his second Premier League title.
A solitary point behind the Gunners is City, who are out to win its sixth league title in seven seasons, a staggering run that underlines its stranglehold on the competition.
So, who takes it from here?
It’s hard to discern who has the easier run of fixtures to round out the season, although all three teams have the added bonus of playing at home in the final game.
However, the title-chasing trio must all face Tottenham, Aston Villa and Wolves, with the first two pushing for Champions League qualification (more on that later). But the key difference is that Arsenal play far more of their games against top-half opponents away from home – including Brighton, Wolves, Spurs and Utd.
The motivational factor of Liverpool’s players wanting to do it for Klopp is worth noting, but the Reds also are without several key players.
Alisson, Curtis Jones, Diogo Jota, Ryan Gravenberch, Ibrahima Konate and Trent Alexander-Arnold all missed the 1-1 draw against Manchester City, with Klopp forced to play a number of youngsters. There’s no shortage of talent, but it could be a step too far for the talented teens to remain flawless in a nervy title race.
City have made winning a habit. They’re the best team in Europe if not the world, and they might just make history with a fourth crown in a row.
TITLE PREDICTION: Manchester City
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
4th: Aston Villa, 59 pts (P31, 18W, 5D, 8L, +17)
5th: Tottenham, 57 pts (P30, 17W, 6D, 7L, +18)
6th: Manchester United, 48 pts (P30, 15W, 3D, 12L, -1)
Spurs’ fate is in their hands. With a game in hand, they could move above Villa by a point – and their recent 4-0 battering of the Villans surely delivered a major psychological blow to their top-four rivals.
Both teams face Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool before the season is out. But what could prove a major blow for Spurs is that they face the trio back-to-back: a make-or-break run for their Europe ambitions. A couple of losses could be a major setback – a momentum killer on the run home. Conversely, strong results in those matches could carry them home to the finish line.
Villa play Liverpool (h) and Crystal Palace (a) in their final two matches, while Spurs host Burnley then travel to Sheffield United for their final two fixtures. By that point, the latter pair might already be mathematically relegated. It’s clearly an easier finish for Spurs – and if things are tight, that might just make the difference.
Manchester United are still in the hunt – but only just. They’re 11 points off Villa as it stands but could benefit if their rivals drop points against the top teams – especially since United have already played both matches against Villa, Spurs, and Man City. But they also have a tricky run home, with their final two matches against Arsenal and Brighton. And their goal difference – and lack of goals in general – could kill off their dream of a late run to Champions League qualification.
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE PREDICTION: Tottenham
RACE FOR EUROPE
4th: Aston Villa, 59 pts (P31, 18W, 5D, 8L, +17)
5th: Tottenham, 57 pts (P30, 17W, 6D, 7L, +18)
6th: Manchester United, 48 pts (P30, 15W, 3D, 12L, -1)
7th: West Ham United, 45 pts (P31, 12W, 9D, 10L, -5)
8th: Newcastle, 44 pts (P30, 13W, 5D, 12L, +12)
9th: Brighton, 43 pts (P30, 11W, 10D, 9L, +5)
10th: Chelsea, 43 pts (P29, 12W, 7D, 10L, +3)
11th: Wolves, 42 pts (P30, 12W, 6D, 12L, -4)
EUROPA LEAGUE PREDICTION: Aston Villa, Manchester United
EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE PREDICTION: West Ham United
As it stands, the top four teams qualify for the Champions League, fifth earns a spot in the Europa League, and sixth qualifies for the Conference League playoff spot.
The winner of the FA Cup is given a Europa League spot – unless they finish in the top five, in which case sixth place in the league is then given a Europa League place (as happened last season).
It’s a similar situation with the EFL Cup – which Liverpool won, meaning they are guaranteed a berth in the Conference League play-offs.
That’s unless they qualify for the Champions League or Europa League thanks to their league finishing position.
In that case – and it’s almost certain they will finish in the top four – their Conference League playoff spot goes to the next-highest placed finisher.
But there’s another big caveat this season: the Champions League is expanding and adopting a new format next campaign, meaning two of Europe’s big leagues will gain an extra automatic qualification berth. Which two nations get those spots depends on how well their clubs perform in European competition this season – meaning Premier League clubs will be willing their rivals to keep winning in Europe!
The Premier League could end up with five Champions League spots, plus another for the Europa League (or two, if the FA Cup winner finishes in the CL or EL qualification places) plus another spot for the Conference League (or two, assuming Liverpool finish in the CL or EL qualification spots).
Clear as mud, right?
Oh, and winning the CL or Europa League gives you direct entry into next season’s CL, while the winner of the Conference League gets a place in the Europa League (like West Ham this season, who got a EL spot despite finishing 14th in the league).
The ‘top four’ race is dead. Now it’s a race for the top … eight? Nine? 11 (yes, it’s technically possible for 11 Premier League teams to make it to Europe).
Either way, we’re tipping Spurs to finish in fourth, as we said above.
Villa have a significantly harder run home than Man United (their remaining opponents’ average league place is currently 8.3, Utd’s is 11.3) – but they’ve scored 63 goals, 20 more than United so far. Ollie Watkins’ 16 goals and 10 assists in 28 matches is a huge part of that – but missed the Manchester City clash with a hamstring injury. Luckily coach Unai Emery said it doesn’t appear to be too serious, and if Watkins can keep fit and firing, Villa seem likely to finish above United’s misfiring offence.
Below them, West Ham and Brighton both have brutal fixtures ahead. The pair have made a habit out of scraping draws in tough matches, which could prove crucial in picking up points in the final few matches. But the Hammers’ defence is conceding far too frequently – their 55 goals against is more like a bottom-half team than one chasing Europe. It can partially be explained by big losses to Fulham (5-0 in December) and Arsenal (6-0 last in February). But they’ve also had success at finding the back of the net on the other side of the pitch – not to mention the 5-0 Europa League win over Freiburg to book their place in the quarterfinals. If they can tighten up their defence, they might just hold onto their position.
But below the Hammers, Wolves and Newcastle especially have significantly easier runs home. Newcastle are scoring plenty of goals – more than Spurs or Villa, for example – and could make a late charge. With a goal difference of +12 – the best of any team outside the top five – they could sneak in to the European places. Recent games have made one thing clear: there’s going to plenty of goals at both ends of the field, and it’s never going to be boring.
RELEGATION
15th: Brentford, 28 pts (P31, 7W, 7D, 17L, -13)
16th: Everton, 26 pts* (P30, 8W, 8D, 14L, -11)
17th: Nottingham Forest, 25 pts** (P31, 7W, 8D, 16L, -14)
18th: Luton Town, 22 pts (P31, 5W, 7D, 19L, -21)
19th: Burnley, 19 pts (P31, 4W, 7D, 20L, -34)
20th: Sheffield United, 15 pts (P30, 3W, 6D, 21L, -52)
* = Everton were deducted six points for breaching PSR rules
** = Nottingham Forest were deducted four points for breaching PSR rules
Barring one of the greatest escapes in Premier League history, it seems a certainty Burnley and Sheffield United are set for an instant return to the Championship.
Sure, it’s possible – but Burnley and Sheffield are United are six and 10 points off safety respectively at this point, point, and they simply look out of their depth.
That leaves us with one spot up for grabs when it comes to relegation.
As it stands, Luton Town round out the bottom three – and the Hatters’ remaining fixtures are the most difficult out of all the teams jostling for survival.
They’ve already made trips to Tottenham and Arsenal only to leave with zero points, with a visit to Manchester City still to come.
A comparison between Luton’s relegation rivals in terms of average league position makes for worrying reading.
Nottingham Forest’s final 10 games spits out an average position of 12.7, while Brentford and Everton’s rivals have average positions of 12.6 – effectively the ‘easiest’ remaining fixtures of any team in the league.
However, the fight for survival could be determined off the field as Forest were charged with breaching the Premier League’s profit and sustainability regulations (PSR).
Everton were initially docked 10 points before it was later reduced to six after an appeal for a similar breach, setting a precedent Forest will be desperate to avoid.
Although Brentford have suffered dismal results as of late, they’ve taken on some of the league’s best teams.
Thankfully for Bees fans, the club’s final games are much kinder and they do not play a team higher than 12th on the table in their last six games, so expect Thomas Frank’s side to stay up.
Everton have a rather favourable run-in, with back-to-back games against relegation rivals Forest, Brentford, Luton and Sheffield United before a final day fixture away to Arsenal.
Toffees boss Sean Dyche is no stranger to a relegation battle and if it weren’t for a points deduction they’d be comfortably away from the drop, which has us believing they will preserve their Premier League status.
Although Luton have shown more fight and desire than most across the Premier League this season, we’re predicting Forest’s superior quality will steer them to safety.
RELEGATION PREDICTION: Luton Town, Burnley, Sheffield United
Source Agencies
