Analysis, reaction, results, wrap, highlights, Harley Reid Western Derby, Essendon finals chances, fixture, St Kilda problems – MASHAHER

As if the hype around Harley Reid couldn’t get any louder, he goes and does THAT in his first Western Derby.

Plus Essendon’s eight-week chance to build a finals campaign, Adelaide robbed again and big questions over St Kida’s future.

The big issues from Round 6 of the 2024 AFL season analysed in Talking Points!

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HARLEY-MANIA RUNNING WILD… ALREADY

Late in the third term of Saturday night’s Western derby, a ‘Harley’ chant reverberated around Optus Stadium.

The prized No.1 draft pick, Harley Reid, had just risen high above a pack to pluck a brilliant contested mark and slot his third goal to give West Coast a shock 51-point lead over a more fancied Fremantle.

“If the lid wasn’t off before, it certainly is now. The hype is real,” Fox Footy caller Adam Papalia said.

Few players in recent AFL history are widely recognised and/or described by their nickname or first name. Buddy, Dusty and maybe Nic Nat are probably the exceptions.

You sense ‘Harley’ will one day join that group.

That’s bonkers to think now, considering Reid only turned 19 days just before his sixth AFL game.

But in the space of a few months, Reid has seemingly transformed one of the largest football clubs in the country, injected grand optimism into a re-energised fan base and become the inspirational figure West Coast’s playing group can follow going forward.

“We heard he was a once-in-a-generation player — and we’re seeing it play out before our eyes,” former All-Australian Nathan Brown told Channel 9

“I don’t think since Chris Judd has somebody had such an impact so early.”

What makes that Judd statement more remarkable is that no player has entered the AFL with so much external fanfare around them than Reid.

Yet the kid from Tongala is already in Under 18s mode at AFL level.

He’s taking hangers in western derbies, giving don’t argues to ‘Dusty’ and big rucks, sitting dual Brownlow Medalist Nat Fyfe on his backside, exploding away from stoppages with insane power and hitting the scoreboard at key moments in games.

It all points to a young player simply living his dream and playing with infectious joy.

And then there’s off-field confidence.

At the end of a post-game interview with 6PR Football on Saturday night, Reid gave Fremantle legend and expert analyst David Mundy — who cast votes for the Glendinning-Allan Medal — one of the all-time drive-bys.

“Thank you … I don’t think Mundy likes me giving me one (vote),” he said with a smile, prompting a raucous response from the broadcast team.

It’s a confidence, too, that’s being warmly embraced by his teammates.

“He’s got a fair bit of swagger, but as ‘Simmo’ said, if you can walk the walk, you can talk the talk as well. He’s certainly doing that at the moment,” Eagles teammate Elliot Yeo — who’s also lifted in recent weeks — told Fox Footy on Saturday night.

“Throughout pre-season, we knew we had a pretty good player. It’s good to see him out here and continuing to live up to the hype. We feed off that and it’s good fun to be out here. I’ve got front-row tickets.”

The Eagles’ past three performances, which have included consecutive wins over Richmond and Fremantle, have been drastic improvements from their 2023 campaign. Before those two victories, it genuinely felt like the script flipped for Adam Simpson’s side in Gather Round when they gave finals fancies Sydney a big scare.

It also felt like Reid was the catalyst of the change, punctuated by a brilliant first-quarter goal that prompted a passionate jumper grab in celebration.

In the past three games, Reid has kicked five goals — including three against the Dockers on Saturday night — and averaged 21.3 disposals, 10.3 contested possessions, 6.7 score involvements and 6.0 clearances.

They’re similar numbers to what he was putting up in his 18th year. One recruiter told foxfooty.com.au you could argue 2023 was “a bit of a waste year in some ways” for Reid as he was already primed for the AFL. Another scout said they felt, at times, last year Reid was “going through the motions” as he was AFL-ready very early in his draft year.

More recruiters spoken to by foxfooty.com.au on Sunday had always maintained Reid would have an immediate impact, if he remained injury-free, due to his strength and physical power.

Under amended AFL rules, a club can negotiate a new deal with a draftee after Round 6. And as West Coast chief executive Don Pyke told Triple M on Saturday, the Eagles are “not sitting on our hands”, adding: “We’d clearly like to get him for as long as we possibly could. We think he’d be an important part of what we’re doing going forward.”

Those remarks prompted some bold suggestions around what Reid‘s next contract should look like.

“You’ve got to sign him up … Would you give him a 10-year deal right now if you were West Coast?” Tigers legend Matthew Richardson asked on 3AW on Sunday.

It might sound ridiculous on paper. But what Reid is doing as a six-gamer is ridiculous.

One scout said winning games now would help the Eagles’ chances significantly. But considering he looks every bit a generational talent, rival clubs will no doubt throw big money at him.

Imagine what he’ll be producing in three years’ time … or five.

MORE LIKE ‘EIGHT-WEEK PLAN’: DONS PITCH ‘BIGGEST LEMON OF ALL TIME’

During an eyebrow-raising pre-season interview, Essendon coach Brad Scott hinted at an eight-year timeline for his burgeoning Bomber brigade to reach ultimate success.

While it wasn’t by any means a declamation that it would necessarily take eight years to taste premiership success, the comments drew an exasperated sigh from a starving Dons faithful that continues to impatiently await September progress.

However, six games into a 2024 campaign that wasn’t expected to deliver incredible on-field results, the Bombers — at 4-2 — have fought to be in a position to contend strongly for a top-eight placing.

The Bombers claimed their fourth victory of the 2024 season on Friday night, downing the Adelaide Crows in a thrilling finish at Adelaide Oval.

Referencing Scott’s comments from early March, Hawthorn great Ben Dixon says Scott threw us “the biggest lemon of all time” in touting an eight-year flag blueprint.

As of the start of Saturday’s games, the crucial four points shift Essendon into the top eight as it continues to trend towards an unexpected finals berth.

“I’m going to have a crack,” Dixon began on Fox Footy Live on Friday night.

“Brad Scott said, at the start of the year, ‘I’ve got an eight-year plan’. Well, let’s strip it back.

“He’s thrown us the biggest lemon of all time. The ‘decoy’. I think it’s an eight-week plan now.

“Their season’s set up. 4-2, they’re in good shape, they’re in the eight. He’s saying it’s a longer journey, I think it’s a shorter journey.”

Dixon previewed Essendon’s upcoming fixtures, claiming the Dons can “set their year up”.

“Just have a look at their next few games,” Dixon continued.

“ANZAC Day (against Collingwood) could go either way. They’re defending really well. They’re defending ball movement really well — Collingwood’s going to be a great test.

“West Coast, we know where they’re at … Essendon are in a better position with their list and talent, and then the toughest test will be — obviously — the (then-)unbeaten Giants.

“Then we go North Melbourne, Richmond, Gold Coast, Carlton and West Coast. In the next eight weeks, they play West Coast twice.”

Based on ladder position alone Essendon will be favoured in six of their next eight games.

“They can set their year up,” Dixon said.

“‘Scotty’, (the) eight-year plan, (it’s) out the window. I reckon it’s an eight-week plan.

“He’s going to see a really good part of his season (and) where (they’re) going to be.”

Dixon didn’t commit to declaring the Bombers were in premiership contention this year, but it’s clear they’ve put themselves in an advantageous position to contend for a finals seed late in the year.

Next Thursday’s highly anticipated clash with Collingwood on ANZAC Day shapes as a telling measuring stick for these Dons.

CROWS’ CLASS AFTER THIRD POOR CALL… BUT MAJOR ISSUES REMAIN

You had to admire the Crows’ class on Friday night – but not their on-field fluency for the entire four quarters.

In its past 16 games, Adelaide has been on the wrong end of three late, controversial decisions: The non-high call to Jordan Dawson against Collingwood in Round 15 last year, that Ben Keays ‘behind’ against Sydney in Round 23 and the non-holding the ball decision against Essendon’s Sam Draper on Friday night.

The AFL validated that the Crows were stiff, conceding the umpires got all three calls wrong in the aftermath of the incidents.

Rightly, the Crows made a lot of noise after Keays wasn’t awarded a goal, for it was factually clear-cut – rather than left up to umpire interpretation for the first and third incidents – and probably cost them a spot in the 2023 finals series.

In a bid to make up for the Round 23 goal umpiring error howler, the Crows pushed for more marquee match-ups in 2024 – and they were rewarded with five prime time home games. Ironically, the Draper non-call came on a Friday night at Adelaide Oval against a big Victorian club.

Yet amid the litany of incorrect calls and ample external furore, the Crows – at least publicly – have refused to wallow in Friday night’s controversy or use it as an excuse, even though they have a right to feel jilted.

Stony-faced coach Matthew Nicks was in no mood to discuss the umpires’ failure to whistle Draper for an obvious holding the ball free kick in the final seconds of Friday night’s pulsating clash after the big ruck fell on the ball deep in Adelaide’s forward 50 as time ran out.

As frustrating as the controversial finish was, Nicks and the Crows know they have so many self-inflicted wounds and issues to deal with at the moment.

“If we start to review games based on moments like that we’re headed down the wrong path,” Crows head of footy Adam Kelly told SA Grandstand on ABC radio on Saturday morning.

“These errors will occur every week. We can’t put ourselves in positions where we’re relying on decisions like that.”

Coach Nicks post-match conceded the Crows “took a step back” on Friday night and would have stolen the win if the frantic final minutes had gone their way.

“I’m not going to make a comment around umpiring … that will just add to the night,” Nicks said.

While the Draper non-free kick was the big talking point, Nicks bemoaned his side’s failure to grasp one of the several scoring opportunities that arose from repeat forward 50 entries in the dying minutes.

“There were a number of different opportunities that – I don’t know how many times we went in (inside 50) in a row – but we found our aggression and our assertiveness, and where had that been for the night? That was another disappointing part,” he said.

“I thought we looked slow and reactive early, which put us on the back foot.

“Credit to Essendon, they were sharp early – we were off, which we’ll look into.”

A week after the Crows stunned Carlton for their first win of the season, they looked slow and struggled to move the ball with any fluency for large patches of Friday night’s game against Essendon.

They’re now 1-5, meaning playing finals this season is a faint hope more than a realistic ambition.

“Our record is not where we want it and, unfortunately, our game wasn’t either, so we took a step back,” Nicks said.

“That’s the bigger issue for us … we want to hold that momentum of form, we want to play a game that we walk off and be proud of.

“I think we’re all a bit disappointed with what we put out there.

“We lost the contest, we got out-tackled, so there were just a lot of areas that weren’t working.

“Our backs were to the wall and we hung in, but we expect so much more than that … (than) where we’re at at the moment.”

WHERE ACTUALLY ARE THE SAINTS AT LONG-TERM?

The Saints have been an organisation starved of success throughout its history and questions remain over their long-term list build under Ross Lyon.

While the men from Moorabbin hosted a final last year with a 13-10 record, and won an elimination final in 2020, they have not been a true contender in a decade and a half.

The fear is they remain a list mired in midtable mediocrity, with a midfield group lacking impact, damage or excitement.

“I’ve been disappointed with their year. I thought they were a chance to be a sneaky fourth, fifth, maybe come into the top four,” North Melbourne champion David King said on Fox Footy after their 60-point loss to the Bulldogs.

“Their stocks are better this year than they were last. What they were able to do last year, we gave them enormous credit for particularly in the first nine or 10 weeks. I really don’t know; there’s a few injuries but I just look at this midfield and I think really, is this midfield the group that’s going to drive you forward?”

St Kilda’s midfield was destroyed by the Bulldogs, losing the disposal count (-75), inside 50s (-10), uncontested possession (-65) and centre clearances (-7).

The Dogs completely dictated play, taking an astonishing 148 marks, double that of the Saints.

Former St Kilda star, Leigh Montagna said that the performance was “uncharacteristic” for the Saints under Ross Lyon.

The Saints have only lost one game by more than 28 points since the start of 2023, a 50-point loss to the Crows back in round nine last year.

“When they lose, they’ve always been competitive,” Montagna said.

Lyon made mention of the Saints’ interstate six-day and five-day breaks in the lead up to the clash with the Bulldogs and Montagna wondered whether it has caught up with the young Saints side.

“It might have just caught up with the young blokes,” Montagna said.

“The young guys all had no influence, they looked tired.

“So whether that’s an excuse, whether you give them that out? I think I will because it’s uncharacteristic, but certainly there are some red flags with St Kilda about this season and what it looks like going forward.”

King believes that the “page is going to turn” for some of St Kilda’s more experienced campaigners, who “are not damaging enough”.

Seb Ross’ impact on games remains minimal, averaging just over 20 disposals, while Jack Sinclair has been well down on his usual output.

“It’s the mature players that I’m talking about,” King said.

“It’s Ross, Steele… Sinclair is not having the same impact and I know he’s had an impacted pre-season, but he’s not having the same influence as when he was injected into the midfield late in games last year.”

King highlighted that the Saints have struggled to convert on the scoreboard when they actually get clearances, which he believes is a “massive issue”.

“They’ve been 18th in the competition all year for punishing the competition when they win a clearance. They’ve got to look at personnel, it’s been the same guys in there for a while now.”

King called for the Saints to try something new with their centre bounce mix.

“Why can Ed Richards go in there tonight for the Dogs, but we don’t see that from St Kilda? Throw in a Brad Hill, I know I talk about Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera a lot, but you need to explore with these young kids, try and find something a little bit different.”

Forward Mitchito Owens is another player that could be used through bursts in the midfield, while Mattaes Phillipou and Hugo Garcia are youngsters who have been given more responsibility in recent weeks.

Montagna believes that the Saints must try to strike a balance between winning games right now and establishing key cogs for their next premiership tilt.

“You’re still trying to win every single week, but at the same time you’re trying to build the right team and right list capable of winning a premiership,” he said.

“So they might not be in the premiership race this year, but they’re trying to get there at the same time as winning.

“They know they’ve got to go to the drafts, they know they’ve got to get some free agents in – and that’s all going to take time – and they’ve got to blood some youth and find the right players.”